Where to Find Portfolio Stability During Market Uncertainty?

Speaker: 00:00:10

Let's go.

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Ryan Nauman Market Strategist Zephyr:

Hello everyone and welcome to

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zephyr's adjusted for Risk Podcast

from the shores of Lake Tahoe.

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I have another great show

lined up for us today.

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I have on the perfect guest to

dig into the essential world.

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Of row crop investing to explore how

staple commodities like corn, soy,

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wheat, can impact investment portfolios

and what the current macro and market

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environment means for these grains.

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But first, today's episode is sponsored

by the award winning Zephyr, which

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helps investment professionals

make more informed investment

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decisions on behalf of their clients.

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All right, enough from me.

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I've already talked enough.

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Let's go ahead and bring

on the star of the show.

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I'd like to give a very warm

welcome to Sal Gilberti.

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Sal is a CEO of two cream ETFs, Sal.

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Thank you so much for

coming on the show again.

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You were on about a year and a half

ago, so it was a great conversation,

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a really fun conversation.

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I'm glad I didn't scare you

away after that first go around.

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So it's an honor to have you back on.

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Can you please tell us a little bit

more about yourself and two Korean

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and maybe how you got started?

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Sal Gilbertie CEO Teucrium:

Sure.

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And thanks for having me, Ryan.

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It's always good to see you.

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Really appreciate it.

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So two is a an ETF issuer.

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I came from commodities my entire life.

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I've traded commodities and and in another

career I had trading for a European bank.

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I found out what ETFs were and couldn't

believe there were no grains etf.

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And so I started two cream.

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Our first fund launched was the Corn

Fund, and it's got a great ticker, CORN.

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We were first to the game, so

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Ryan: I can remember that one.

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Sal Gilbertie CEO Teucrium:

Yeah.

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Yeah, that's an easy one to

remember and it's really good.

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And greens to me, because I'm, I come from

an agricultural family and I came from

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Cargill, obviously that was my first job.

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So I, I'm mystified.

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That people don't think about grains all

the time and put them in their portfolio.

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Now we've got lots of other

ETFs and we actually launch

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ETFs for other people as well.

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But we're in different categories, but

we're known for our grains and this

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is a really good time to be talking

about grains and how they could

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potentially help a portfolio through both

stabilization and potentially return.

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Ryan: Yeah, that's great.

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And as I, my background farming runs deep

in my family's blood, and I was thinking

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about grains and fields when I was

younger also, but it was a whole different

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conversation I was thinking about.

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Where I can go hide with my cousins

to go have a few beers and go

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run around through the fields

drinking, cause causing trouble.

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Wasn't thinking about investing

in grains back then, but now it's

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like you said, it's a fascinating

time and really interesting.

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So let's start by talking about

the current market and macro

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environment right now and how

it's investing how it's impact.

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Investing in agriculture and

grains, there's a lot going on.

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Sell Duran more.

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We've got other things

that are setting up.

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Inflation is still sticky with the

risk of inflation increasing oil

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above a hundred dollars or around.

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How's this all impact agriculture

and investing in grains?

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Sal Gilbertie: High energy prices

obviously impact everything.

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Agriculture in particular, and this is

why this is a good time for this with

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the war in the Middle East going on

right now, and the interruption of energy

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supplies, particularly liquid natural gas.

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Coming out of the Middle East Natural

Gas, the Nobel Peace Prize has been

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won a couple of times for people in

agriculture, studying agriculture.

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And his name is escaping me right now.

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But the guy who invented synthetic

fertilizer realized you could

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make fertilizer from natural gas.

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Has, there are billions of people alive

in the world because of that particular.

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Okay.

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And when you have a problem with your

fertilizer supply, you could potentially

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have a problem with your crops.

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And so it's not an immediate problem.

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I think to go into the basics,

which you probably know.

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Corn needs nitrogen, so you

need to put nitrogen down.

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Corn is grass.

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It's like fertilizing your lawn.

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Soybeans actually, they call it

fixing nitrogen into the soil.

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So before the advent of commercial

fertilizers, you basically, a

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farmer would plant corn one year,

plow that under and plant soybeans.

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The next year, the corn would take

the nitrogen out of the soil, soybeans

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would put the nitrogen back in, and

you would have this natural rotation.

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And once synthetic fertilizers could

be applied, people put corn on.

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Corn on corn.

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Corn and wheat need.

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A good deal of nitrogen soybeans don't.

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And so what happens is

a farmer in the autumn.

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We'll make a decision based upon all

his input costs and hopefully the,

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the price of the grains on the forward

curve to plant something and they

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decide what to put in that field.

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Corn and soybeans share acres.

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So you generally, where most of the

corn and most of the soybeans are grown,

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you can plant either corn or soybeans.

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Your call, you're gonna do that

based upon your input costs.

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So in the autumn.

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You're gonna price your seeds, price your

fertilizer, buy your fertilizer, lay most

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of your fertilizer down in that field.

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So winter's over and in the spring,

you just, you hit the field with

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the tractor and you get planted.

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And so what will happen here now is

most of the corn will be planted, okay?

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There'll be some marginal acres.

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And again we plant, 90 or so

million acres here in the United

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States of each corn and soybeans.

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There'll be a little bit of

switching from corn to soybeans.

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For the farmers who can and didn't

maybe lock in their pricing properly

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or didn't treat their fields in

the autumn, waited till the spring.

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Everybody's a little bit different

how they operate, so there will

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be some marginal switching.

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So you will see some corn acres

convert to soybean acres, so you'll

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see a little bit less corn there.

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And let's understand, let's plenty

of grain in the world right now.

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You've got about a six month

excess supply of wheat.

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You've got about a three month excess

supply of corn and you've got a little

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bit less than that for soybeans.

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And so those are norm.

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Those are absolutely normal

levels and grains trade at or

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near their cost of production.

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That's something people

need to understand.

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Every government in the world subsidizes

their agriculture community because

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they don't want their people to be hung.

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And so farmers get used to

operating really close to

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break even or at break even.

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And it so happens that even with all

that's going on right now, the price of

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corn is about at its new break even level.

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And so if you look at a chart

going back to the renewable fuel

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standard around 2007, when everything

repriced permanently the future's

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equivalent breakeven price for corn.

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And what I mean by that is everyone

can see the future's price of corn.

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Okay.

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Every farm is a different cost, but if

you convert it back to the delivery into

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futures, you get this one jelled price.

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That's the breakeven price for the

last 17 years that's been between

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$3 and 50 cents and $4 a bushel.

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Now to your point, we've got a

lot of inflation that's come.

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You have rising energy prices,

you've got rising fertilizer costs.

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Corn is trading about four 40.

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As we record this that's 10% above the

old cost of production of around $4.

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Is that the new cost of production?

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I don't know.

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I will tell you that in calendar 2025,

the front month futures corn only

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traded under $4 for two business.

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Stays.

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So it looks like the old

price of, production, the old

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cost of production was $4.

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Now it's a lot here, but in the last

17 years, the price of corn has doubled

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three times from that three 50 to $4 area.

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So if someone says to you, I've

got an asset trades at X every

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couple of years, it trades as at

two x, and then it goes back to x.

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and it's happened three

times in the last 17 years.

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You're probably gonna say, let me

know when that thing gets back to X.

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I'll throw something in there.

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And what happens is farmers will

simply plant something else.

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So while there are no guarantees

in life and past performance is

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not indicative future results.

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We all know the terms.

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Okay?

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Corn at its breakeven or any

agricultural commodity at its breakeven,

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you've got pretty limited downside.

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Historically, if you look back at

a chart again, corn doesn't really

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trade below that three 50 to $4.

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Look at a chart.

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Okay.

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So if you put, there's, we have advisors

who say, I'll put 1% of my portfolio

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in corn when it's at that $4 level.

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Okay.

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When it's at that breakeven level,

is the new breakeven four 40?

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Where we are now, I don't know, but

I do know that you've got pretty

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limited downside historically.

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Okay.

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And grains don't correlate very well.

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They still correlate like all

assets on the really bad days.

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They all go down together.

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But grain's correct.

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And in fact, we have something called the

two agricultural index that we compute

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and one of our funds actually follows it.

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It's called the Rim Agricultural

Fund, the tickers TAGS, that

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index since its creation.

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During that time, the s

and p 500 has had seven.

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declines or more meaning

a bear market correction.

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Okay?

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Seven of those seven times that

index has outperformed the s and p

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500 a couple times by double digit

percentages, like really significantly.

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So grains can act as a

portfolio stabilizer.

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they can also provide some positive

alpha, some positive returns

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depending on when you buy them.

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And right now as we speak,

you've got fertilizer disruption.

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lasting, you've got potentially lasting

effects of inflation that has been okay.

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We think the break even price

of corn is somewhere above $4.

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Now, where if it's at four 40

or down at four, I don't know.

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Okay.

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But the markets seem to be

pricing in something a little

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higher than $4 a bushel.

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We're within 10% of that price right now.

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So can do their own math when

there's a supply disruption.

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Prices tend to go up pretty quickly.

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And again, corn has doubled three times

in the last 17 years during perceived

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price disruptions, which all come

from a drought when it stops raining

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in a massive corn reducing area.

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And again, soybeans follow,

they correlate well.

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Wheat follows, it correlates

fairly well to those two, doesn't

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share the exact same makers,

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Right now to look at grains

as a portfolio stabilizer in

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a very uncertain stock market.

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It to look at them as a potential

provider of excess returns because you're

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buying them near their break even cost.

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And at some point there could be a supply

disruption and demand never goes down.

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Okay.

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The combined use of corn,

soybeans, and wheat since: 1960

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globally either every single year.

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When you do the math is either

record use or the second highest.

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It never, it just doesn't fall.

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And the human population is growing.

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The demand for these things to be used in

biofuels and other products are growing.

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You can't, one anywhere on planet

Earth can get away with not using

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corn indirectly corn's in everything.

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Okay.

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And so that all said, and

I'll take a breath here.

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It's really important for people to

look at grains as a healthy component

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of a well-balanced portfolio.

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It really is.

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Ryan: Yeah, that's fantastic sell.

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I love that backdrop.

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Just the whole overall conversation there.

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All the insight too, investing

in grains and also what goes into

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grains and growing it, and like you

said, how important fertilizer is.

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Which is being impacted greatly

with the conflict in the Middle

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East and, so just keep talking.

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The less I talk the better.

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We can just, here you go.

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So you wanna, when you were on year

and a half ago, or the first time we

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had this conversation, you mentioned

that it was, a golden grain cycle.

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And I'd had to go with, it

happened three, it's happened

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three times in the past 17 years.

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Are we still in that golden grain cycle

that you referenced about a year ago?

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Or are we at the tail end of it, or can.

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Sal Gilbertie: We're at the base of it.

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We're always in a golden grain cycle.

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Okay, so there are three

parts of a golden grain cycle.

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One is are trading at or near their break

even costs, which they're doing now.

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And that, that can last

for a very long time.

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Okay.

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Then some disruptor, 99 times out of

a hundred, it's a drought somewhere.

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Okay?

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Will cause, because demand is always

steady or rising, and you've got supply

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you know you're gonna have diminished

supply if it doesn't rain on your crops.

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So the first part of the golden

grain cycle, there are three

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parts, is you're trading sideways,

near the breakeven level.

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It's just sitting there.

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It's not doing anything for your

portfolio, it's just hanging out, okay?

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Then something happens.

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Usage remains stable or grows, supply

somehow gets diminished generally

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through rain or a geopolitical

dis lack of rain or a geopolitical

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interruption and prices react and go up.

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So that's the second part

of the golden grain cycle.

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The third part is when prices are

really high, every farmer in the

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world will plant as much as you can.

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It's not if you don't have

enough copper, it'll take you 10

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years to permit and dig a mine.

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If you don't have enough oil, it'll

take you a year or two to dig a well

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or longer because of permits and

environmental concerns and all that.

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The next growing season, a

farmer's gonna plant that seed

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that makes 'em the most money.

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Okay?

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So crops get replaced pretty quickly

and that's why there are these cycles.

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That's why we called it

the golden grain cycle.

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When they're at break even.

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They're gonna be there for a while.

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But history shows us when there's

a disruptor of the supply,

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the demand never disrupts.

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Okay?

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It just, it's just steady.

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You basically see this

instant price reaction.

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Okay?

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So the price goes up.

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That's the second part.

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Third part is when every farmer

plants next year, the year after,

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to replenish those stocks that were

likely drawn down because you had a

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little bit of a diminished supply.

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Now you head back down

towards that cause to break.

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Even so there are three parts.

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You're at break even, you're

rising up to some peak and then

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you're falling back to break even.

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And right now we're at or very close

to that break even price again.

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In 2025, spot Corn Futures only

traded for two calendar days under $4.

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So we know that the future's equivalent

breakeven cost of corn is around

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$4 and you're at four 40 right now.

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So you're within, you're probably

within 10% and maybe right at

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who knows what the actual costs

are when everything shake out.

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You're really close and it's not just

corn again, beans go the same way.

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Wheat follows very well.

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Sugar plays to its own tune.

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It's a big ag.

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But because it's a different hemispheric.

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Considerations in terms of growing

seasons, and you've only got a few

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exporters of sugar that matter.

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Okay, so just as a point of

information, sugar, Brazil, Thailand,

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to some extent, India, these people

really matter in terms of exports.

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Brazil and Thailand matter for exports,

India's production matters 'cause if

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they become a marginal importer or

exporter, that actually does swing the

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price of sugar a little bit for corn.

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A lot of people.

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Can export corn.

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Okay.

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The largest exporters are

the United States and Brazil.

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Alright, but you've got like Ukraine.

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What?

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Always a top five exporter of corn.

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I don't know if they still are now.

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Wheat different.

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Everybody in the world grows wheat.

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It is the one crop that's consumed

more by humans than any other crop.

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Corn is used in everything from biofuels

to paper, to plastics, to, to whatever.

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But, and soybeans are used in Yes.

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Cooking oil, right?

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But they mostly feed animals and produce

biofuels, Wheat is consumed by humans.

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You can put poor quality wheat in an

ethanol plant and make ethanol out of it.

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It's been done.

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You can do it.

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But bottom line, wheat gets

consumed by humans and animals.

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That's it.

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And so wheat's grown everywhere.

325

: 00:15:50

Again, it's a type of grass, essentially.

326

: 00:15:52

It needs nitrogen.

327

: 00:15:54

And so the any disruption in the

availability of fertilizer globally,

328

: 00:15:59

or more significantly the price rise

that we've seen, if that's sticky.

329

: 00:16:05

you've got two things.

330

: 00:16:06

In the autumn, in the northern

hemisphere, farmers will make decisions

331

: 00:16:09

of whether to plant corn or wheat or

something else based upon the price

332

: 00:16:12

of their nitrogen based fertilizer.

333

: 00:16:14

But the rest of the world, because

wheat's grown in so many other countries,

334

: 00:16:18

there are a lot of marginal in terms

of how strong their economies are.

335

: 00:16:25

right.

336

: 00:16:25

If you got major wheat producers

like the us, Argentina, France

337

: 00:16:29

Russia, Ukraine, Australia,

they're not gonna have a problem.

338

: 00:16:34

Okay?

339

: 00:16:34

Their costs will go up, but generally

their economies are strong enough where

340

: 00:16:37

their farmers can pay and get it done.

341

: 00:16:39

Okay?

342

: 00:16:40

It will make the break even price go up.

343

: 00:16:42

But you've got a lot of countries that

grow wheat that they may not be able

344

: 00:16:46

to afford a higher price of fertilizer.

345

: 00:16:48

That over time is going to affect.

346

: 00:16:52

Global production of primarily wheat.

347

: 00:16:55

It will affect corn as well, but

it primarily wheat over time.

348

: 00:16:59

This is not really a 2026 problem.

349

: 00:17:02

I think that the price rise in fertilizer

from the war, depending on how long

350

: 00:17:06

it lasts, could very significantly

become a: 2027

351

: 00:17:11

the northern hemisphere of farmers.

352

: 00:17:13

The price and availability of

that synthetic nitrogen fertilizer

353

: 00:17:17

in the autumn of this year is

gonna matter for: 2027

354

: 00:17:21

And over time as the marginal producers

of wheat, which when you add 'em all up,

355

: 00:17:25

it's pretty significant globally, okay.

356

: 00:17:27

Are affected by the price of fertilizer

and switch to other crops or just cut

357

: 00:17:31

back on what they're playing that's

to gonna tighten things up in: 2027

358

: 00:17:36

So it actually is pretty important.

359

: 00:17:38

What happens in, in this war and with

the availability of supplies and how

360

: 00:17:42

long this inflation that we've seen

or this rise in prices that we've seen

361

: 00:17:48

is sticks alright with fertilizer?

362

: 00:17:51

It's a very, potentially a very big deal.

363

: 00:17:54

Again, right now I think the advantage

investors have is there's plenty of

364

: 00:17:57

crops, plenty of grains by any metric.

365

: 00:18:00

And so prices really aren't.

366

: 00:18:02

Aren't rallying that much,

they're just sitting there.

367

: 00:18:05

Again, it's something to look at

for portfolio stabilization, and it

368

: 00:18:09

just happens to be an opportune time

historically, on the price charts where

369

: 00:18:12

you're, you are above the historic

cost of production, but we don't know.

370

: 00:18:16

We might actually be at the current

cost of production right now.

371

: 00:18:19

We, no one knows, and so this

could be an opportune time for

372

: 00:18:22

people to at least consider

looking at ads in their portfolio.

373

: 00:18:26

And of course, ETFs make that easy.

374

: 00:18:27

Ryan: Yeah.

375

: 00:18:28

So s and we're gonna get into that

shortly and let's talk about investing,

376

: 00:18:32

as a port investment portfolio.

377

: 00:18:33

You've done a great job so far talking

about, it's a stabilizer, investment

378

: 00:18:38

portfolio and can be a hedge.

379

: 00:18:40

So 2027, is more where you're

focusing on potentially if this

380

: 00:18:45

conflict goes longer and longer, 2020.

381

: 00:18:50

Se like what role does that play

as if investors want to think about

382

: 00:18:56

investing in row crops or grains?

383

: 00:18:58

Is that 2027 potentially, if

this conflict goes on longer?

384

: 00:19:04

Does that.

385

: 00:19:04

Increase the price potentially of

corn obviously probably increases the

386

: 00:19:10

price of, or that breakeven price.

387

: 00:19:12

As fertilizer gets more expensive.

388

: 00:19:16

Is that how they would play this?

389

: 00:19:18

I.

390

: 00:19:19

Sal Gilbertie: That's a good question.

391

: 00:19:20

It's also a complicated question in that

if you look back at when grains have their

392

: 00:19:25

rally, they rally explosively and quickly.

393

: 00:19:26

So if you're not in them.

394

: 00:19:29

you're a trend trader you miss it.

395

: 00:19:31

Okay?

396

: 00:19:32

If you're an asset allocator looking

to do the right thing for your client's

397

: 00:19:35

long-term portfolio, you're gonna

miss that trade if you're not in it.

398

: 00:19:38

And traditionally when we don't have

wars, we don't have supply disruptions.

399

: 00:19:41

All else being equal and

all else is rarely equal.

400

: 00:19:44

I get it.

401

: 00:19:44

Okay.

402

: 00:19:45

But when everything's

balanced, like the supply.

403

: 00:19:47

Picture right now is balanced.

404

: 00:19:49

And that's why grain prices

haven't really rocketed higher.

405

: 00:19:52

Okay?

406

: 00:19:52

There's fears that things might

happen, actually happen, and

407

: 00:19:55

there's plenty of grain, alright?

408

: 00:19:57

But traditionally people look at

layering grains into their portfolio in

409

: 00:20:01

the autumn and think of it, it's easy.

410

: 00:20:05

Most of the corn in the world, and

it's grown in both hemispheres.

411

: 00:20:08

All right?

412

: 00:20:08

But most of the corn in the

world gets harvested from the

413

: 00:20:11

northern hemisphere, okay?

414

: 00:20:13

And way more than half.

415

: 00:20:15

Alright?

416

: 00:20:15

A significant portion.

417

: 00:20:17

Look at it this way.

418

: 00:20:18

You harvest your corn all in

a, call it a two month period

419

: 00:20:22

in the Northern Hemisphere.

420

: 00:20:24

It's in a big pile on the

ground, if you can imagine that.

421

: 00:20:26

And the world comes to

take corn every day.

422

: 00:20:28

Everybody comes and they take a

piece of that pile every single day.

423

: 00:20:32

They do it for the rest

of the autumn, it all.

424

: 00:20:34

Winter piles getting smaller,

nothing's planted, okay.

425

: 00:20:37

In the spring, everybody's all excited.

426

: 00:20:40

I wanna plant that.

427

: 00:20:41

Pile's not getting any bigger, it's

getting smaller 'cause you're not adding

428

: 00:20:44

to the pile until the following harvest.

429

: 00:20:46

Okay.

430

: 00:20:47

And so you've gotta go the

spring planting, you've gotta

431

: 00:20:50

go the summer to see if it rains

enough and the crop comes out.

432

: 00:20:53

And then you've gotta go

through the autumn harvest.

433

: 00:20:54

So there's a year where that

pile's getting smaller and smaller.

434

: 00:20:57

And again, as I referenced earlier, at

the end of that year, right when you

435

: 00:21:01

start harvest to make the pile bigger

again, right now there's about six

436

: 00:21:04

months left over of wheat globally, okay?

437

: 00:21:06

It's three or four months of corn

and soybeans leftover globally,

438

: 00:21:09

a little less than soybeans.

439

: 00:21:10

Alright?

440

: 00:21:11

If anything happens to.

441

: 00:21:14

Diminish the size of the new pile

that you're gonna make prices already

442

: 00:21:18

anticipate that and go higher.

443

: 00:21:20

If you look at most of the big

price rallies in green, they happen

444

: 00:21:24

during the summer in the Northern

Hemisphere because of a drought

445

: 00:21:26

generally in, in North America.

446

: 00:21:29

Okay.

447

: 00:21:30

And they have a vast majority of their

move happens between July and December.

448

: 00:21:35

Okay.

449

: 00:21:35

And then seasonally, you generally see

prices rally December through March, may.

450

: 00:21:42

period, and then you start seeing selling

because people start getting confident

451

: 00:21:45

in the crop and you have that cyclical

low once in August when you start the

452

: 00:21:49

early harvest, and once again around

October 1st, which is traditionally corns.

453

: 00:21:54

If you do seasonal smooth averages, corns

clear, seasonal low happens October 1st.

454

: 00:21:59

Okay,

455

: 00:21:59

now that's all else being equal.

456

: 00:22:01

We're not equal right now.

457

: 00:22:02

And so I think people need to look at

what's my downside risk Historically,

458

: 00:22:07

and again you're probably within 10%

of corn's break even corn at four

459

: 00:22:12

40 right now, and it only traded

below $4, for two days last year.

460

: 00:22:17

You can do the math and there it is.

461

: 00:22:19

So if somebody puts 1% of their portfolio

into corn and it drops 10%, that's a 10th

462

: 00:22:25

of a percent effect on your portfolio.

463

: 00:22:26

Other than that, it's

pretty stable, right?

464

: 00:22:28

If stocks have a, an issue

and they collapse 10% or more,

465

: 00:22:31

traditionally, grains are an excellent

diversifier in hedge statistically.

466

: 00:22:35

Get that drought or that disruption

of it, fertilizer, it's not just the

467

: 00:22:40

disruption now of the straits being

closed, the damage done to the liquid

468

: 00:22:43

natural gas plants that some people are

saying could take three to five years

469

: 00:22:47

to fully get back online, that's gonna

affect the price of fertilizer, not for

470

: 00:22:52

three to five years, because other areas

of the world will make up for that.

471

: 00:22:55

Okay.

472

: 00:22:55

But for a couple of years.

473

: 00:22:57

So again, if you're an asset allocator

looking at, wait a minute, I'm pretty

474

: 00:23:00

close to the cost of production.

475

: 00:23:02

I got 10% downside, maybe a little more.

476

: 00:23:04

If I throw 1% in my portfolio and

there's a stabilizer when my client

477

: 00:23:08

comes in, what am I gonna say?

478

: 00:23:09

You, they, you use 'em no matter what.

479

: 00:23:11

Doesn't matter what the latest

iPhone is, what the stock market's

480

: 00:23:14

doing or anything like that, right?

481

: 00:23:16

And you've got stable demand, and if

there's a drought or some other supply

482

: 00:23:21

disruption you get that quick move.

483

: 00:23:23

So that 1% could become 2%.

484

: 00:23:26

Historically, it's happened in corn

again three times in the last 17 years.

485

: 00:23:29

Now your nine or 10% target

portfolio becomes 10 or 11%

486

: 00:23:34

portfolio, and you're pretty happy.

487

: 00:23:35

Ag should be looked at as a crucial

portfolio diversifying component.

488

: 00:23:40

And again I'm not talking to the traders.

489

: 00:23:42

People are trend followers.

490

: 00:23:43

They can watch the charts and do

491

: 00:23:44

Ryan: Yeah,

492

: 00:23:45

Sal Gilbertie: for people who wanna

park some money somewhere that, that

493

: 00:23:49

hopefully will stabilize their portfolio

and maybe even give some gains.

494

: 00:23:52

Grains are a place people should.

495

: 00:23:54

Ryan: you.

496

: 00:23:54

Yeah.

497

: 00:23:55

That's awesome.

498

: 00:23:56

Sell.

499

: 00:23:57

And I'm glad you're brought up.

500

: 00:23:59

The role that plays is a stabilizer

and it's a long term play, right?

501

: 00:24:04

For our listeners, financial

advisors and their clients.

502

: 00:24:06

It's not something, like you

said, you should probably, I'm

503

: 00:24:09

not a big fan of market timing.

504

: 00:24:12

I think it's a loser's game,

but especially here, right?

505

: 00:24:16

It's a long term play.

506

: 00:24:18

Long term, you just put it

in there and let it sit.

507

: 00:24:21

But why you talked about the advantages.

508

: 00:24:23

It's a stabilizer, low correlation helps

increase diversification of a portfolio.

509

: 00:24:28

Why do you think it's grains?

510

: 00:24:31

Investing in grains is an afterthought,

and more people don't think about it.

511

: 00:24:36

Sal Gilbertie: It is boring.

512

: 00:24:37

We talk about it and it sounds interesting

and you sound, A lot of people say to me,

513

: 00:24:41

I had really good cocktail conversation

after listening to you talk about it.

514

: 00:24:44

That's nice, but it's boring.

515

: 00:24:45

You put it in your portfolio,

there's no yield on it.

516

: 00:24:48

It just sits there.

517

: 00:24:49

And right now everybody wants to see

some sort of yield or since we've had

518

: 00:24:53

the new monetary policy or the, I call

it new, but we're going on 15, 20 years

519

: 00:24:59

with this price, stocks don't go down.

520

: 00:25:02

Yeah.

521

: 00:25:02

They have a 10% correction

here and there by the dip.

522

: 00:25:04

That's what everybody does.

523

: 00:25:06

This 60 40 portfolio e.

524

: 00:25:09

Is going away because of those

couple years we've seen where both

525

: 00:25:13

stocks and bonds go down at the

same time and people just panic.

526

: 00:25:16

Commodities alternative investments,

grains in particular can really help

527

: 00:25:20

you with that if you look back and

enter properly and weight it properly.

528

: 00:25:24

And that's everybody's

individual decisions.

529

: 00:25:27

I'm not making any

recommendations on that.

530

: 00:25:29

But boring and they don't produce a yield.

531

: 00:25:32

Ryan: Yeah.

532

: 00:25:32

Sal Gilbertie: Okay.

533

: 00:25:33

And it's like gold.

534

: 00:25:34

Gold is boring and doesn't

produce a yield, so you can either

535

: 00:25:37

buy the gold miners alright,

which has been a great play.

536

: 00:25:41

Or you can buy gold.

537

: 00:25:41

Most people do both and they

should look at commodities.

538

: 00:25:44

The same way buying the commodities

companies is can be really

539

: 00:25:48

lucrative and you want to own

stocks that are commodities related.

540

: 00:25:51

Fantastic.

541

: 00:25:52

It works.

542

: 00:25:52

It's a great play.

543

: 00:25:53

Alright?

544

: 00:25:54

But you sometimes you also

want to be in those command.

545

: 00:25:57

Some people buy grains as a hedge if

they have a giant position in, a feeder

546

: 00:26:01

operation or Tyson or something where

a huge part of the corporate costs

547

: 00:26:04

are feed costs for their animals.

548

: 00:26:07

Alright?

549

: 00:26:07

Some people will buy both the, a

grain ETF or whatever and they'll

550

: 00:26:13

buy Tyson and they can do their

own math instead of that hedge.

551

: 00:26:16

And or if it's even

worth the effort or not.

552

: 00:26:18

There's been so much easy

money in the stock market.

553

: 00:26:20

I honestly think that's why

people don't pay attention.

554

: 00:26:22

Stuff.

555

: 00:26:22

Ryan: Yeah, that's a really good point

Sal, and I've talked a lot about when,

556

: 00:26:27

for the past three years, markets

have been a double digits, right?

557

: 00:26:31

It's hard to be like, all right,

let's move away from that.

558

: 00:26:34

When equity markets have been

resilient, regardless of the

559

: 00:26:39

headwinds, the challenges out there,

they just keep on ripping higher.

560

: 00:26:44

I could see it on that.

561

: 00:26:46

Emotional side, psychological side

of things where they're like, why?

562

: 00:26:50

Why do anything else?

563

: 00:26:52

Why go outside of the stock market

when we can get 20% returns?

564

: 00:26:57

Sal Gilbertie: Yeah.

565

: 00:26:57

Individual investors and people managing

their own money really like these

566

: 00:27:01

funds, and I think that they use them.

567

: 00:27:03

It's about 50 50 when we do the analysis.

568

: 00:27:05

The registered investment

advisors, honestly, these people

569

: 00:27:08

are so busy courting new money.

570

: 00:27:10

And dealing with the headline of the

day and their phone ringing off the

571

: 00:27:13

hook with clients who are nervous,

they don't have time to do the extra

572

: 00:27:17

work to actually go very far beyond a

573

: 00:27:20

Ryan: Yeah.

574

: 00:27:20

Sal Gilbertie: portfolio.

575

: 00:27:21

And I, I can understand that,

but it, there's a growing number.

576

: 00:27:25

Of advisors who want

alternatives, they want liquidity.

577

: 00:27:29

When these are immensely liquid,

you don't have any problem.

578

: 00:27:32

People drop 50 million tickets in and

outta these ETFs, like it's nothing.

579

: 00:27:35

They go in and out without any problems

and they want a portfolio stabilizer.

580

: 00:27:40

And I'll tell you what, on the days

the stock market's down and you look

581

: 00:27:42

at commodities and grains and they're

green and the stock market's red.

582

: 00:27:46

We do get calls, people saying, thank you,

583

: 00:27:47

Ryan: Yeah.

584

: 00:27:48

Sal Gilbertie: get it.

585

: 00:27:48

I see.

586

: 00:27:49

Ryan: Love it.

587

: 00:27:50

You mentioned that 1%

allocation in couple 10.

588

: 00:27:53

Is that kind of just like a baseline you

think, in terms of portfolio construction?

589

: 00:27:59

I know.

590

: 00:28:00

Obviously it always comes back to

the investor's risk, objective and

591

: 00:28:04

investment objective risk targets.

592

: 00:28:07

But is that a good place to start for a

financial advisor is like a 1% allocation

593

: 00:28:13

into, an ETF instead of trying to go in

and buy the actual physical commodity?

594

: 00:28:20

Sal Gilbertie: Yeah, I one,

it's easier to buy an ETF than a

595

: 00:28:22

Ryan: Yeah.

596

: 00:28:23

Sal Gilbertie: Absolutely

597

: 00:28:24

Ryan: store it?

598

: 00:28:25

Sal Gilbertie: Yeah, we're not given

advice and one percent's easy math, right?

599

: 00:28:29

When you say to put somebody, you

put 1% in, you go 10% down, you

600

: 00:28:32

only lose a 10th of a percent.

601

: 00:28:33

That's easy math.

602

: 00:28:34

We have advisors that have called,

in fact, I think you and I had the

603

: 00:28:37

conversation a while ago where we

had one advisor and he said, look,

604

: 00:28:40

I see corn, flat lighting, and I put

1% of my portfolio in and I waited.

605

: 00:28:45

So he said I waited W-E-I-G-H-T.

606

: 00:28:48

I wait until there's a

drought and then I get out.

607

: 00:28:50

So I was like, wait a minute wait.

608

: 00:28:51

Drought out.

609

: 00:28:52

That's pretty cool.

610

: 00:28:53

And it's a pretty easy concept where you

put something in at 1% and you look down

611

: 00:28:57

and all of a sudden it's 2% you get out.

612

: 00:28:59

And so I think that we use it

just because we have had advisors

613

: 00:29:03

give us real world examples.

614

: 00:29:05

We, you're strategic allocators,

people who do allocate, they

615

: 00:29:10

don't, set it and forget it.

616

: 00:29:12

They are paying attention

at least quarterly.

617

: 00:29:16

those people tend to

wait a little bit more.

618

: 00:29:18

And I think it's, if you're

talking 1% waitings, you got

619

: 00:29:21

a lot of work to do, right?

620

: 00:29:22

So a lot of people just say, I'm gonna

do higher than 1% because I don't want

621

: 00:29:26

a hundred holdings in my portfolio.

622

: 00:29:27

I want 50 or I want 20, or whatever.

623

: 00:29:29

It's it's not a specific re

recommendation, it's one easy math.

624

: 00:29:32

And two, we have had advisors

give us that specific example.

625

: 00:29:35

Before,

626

: 00:29:36

Ryan: Love it.

627

: 00:29:36

You mentioned sugar.

628

: 00:29:38

Let's talk about sugar real quickly.

629

: 00:29:39

Finish conversation here with sugar.

630

: 00:29:42

What's driving the recent fall in

sugar or volatility in sugar prices?

631

: 00:29:46

Is it that run conflict?

632

: 00:29:48

Because like you said, there's only a few

pla, a few exports, exporters of sugar.

633

: 00:29:53

What's driving that?

634

: 00:29:55

The recent volatility there.

635

: 00:29:57

Sal Gilbertie: Sure.

636

: 00:29:57

Sugar tends to have its own natural

volatility because the global sugar

637

: 00:30:02

picture goes in or out of balance,

meaning supply and demand balanced

638

: 00:30:06

by one to say 8 million metric

tons of sugar, which isn't much.

639

: 00:30:11

Okay.

640

: 00:30:12

But if sugar, and they, a lot of analysts

predicted ahead of time and they can see

641

: 00:30:16

what's going on in the growing regions.

642

: 00:30:18

If you go into a global imbalance on

the supply side where you're gonna

643

: 00:30:22

produce, one to 10 million metric

tons more sugar goes into a bear

644

: 00:30:26

mark, and then they wait for their

results to see if everybody was right.

645

: 00:30:30

the opposite.

646

: 00:30:31

As soon as somebody stops pre

predicting it's surplus in this global

647

: 00:30:34

sugar market and they predict the

deficit sugar prices start to rise.

648

: 00:30:38

Now the big variable is Brazil world's

number one exporter of sugar, okay?

649

: 00:30:44

And they use sugar's.

650

: 00:30:47

So when you make ethanol, everybody

relates corn to ethanol here

651

: 00:30:50

in the United States, right?

652

: 00:30:51

Sugar.

653

: 00:30:52

It's a two step process.

654

: 00:30:54

When you're in the United States, you take

corn, you strip out the starch, you turn

655

: 00:30:58

that into sugars and you make ethanol.

656

: 00:31:00

Okay?

657

: 00:31:01

Sugar, you don't you miss a step.

658

: 00:31:02

So it's cheaper to produce

ethanol outta sugar.

659

: 00:31:05

Alright?

660

: 00:31:06

And Brazil uses in its fuel supply

a lot more ethanol than we do.

661

: 00:31:10

They have the flex fuel vehicles down

there and a sugar mill just looks at the

662

: 00:31:14

economics of, do I direct my sugar cane?

663

: 00:31:18

Okay, am I gonna turn it into sugar

or am I gonna turn it into ethanol?

664

: 00:31:24

do that calculation constantly.

665

: 00:31:26

Alright.

666

: 00:31:26

So when energy prices go up, the value

of ethanol goes up because it's a

667

: 00:31:31

component of gasoline and it's a motor

fuel in and of by itself down in Brazil

668

: 00:31:35

when you're using a flex fuel car, okay.

669

: 00:31:38

Obviously the cane producer, the cane

crusher is gonna turn that into ethanol,

670

: 00:31:43

so you're gonna have less sugar.

671

: 00:31:45

So when you see an energy shock

like we're having right now.

672

: 00:31:48

because of the Middle East War a lot.

673

: 00:31:50

That's why you've seen the

volatility in sugar, right?

674

: 00:31:52

Sugar was going up because you had

a little bit of a supply imbalance.

675

: 00:31:55

You had more demand than production.

676

: 00:31:58

It balanced out, sugar started going

down, then we had the war, okay?

677

: 00:32:02

And all of a sudden

Brazil says wait a minute.

678

: 00:32:04

Our economics are such that

we're gonna make more ethanol.

679

: 00:32:06

We're gonna have less sugar,

which means less sugar for

680

: 00:32:08

export onto the global market.

681

: 00:32:10

So the price went back up again.

682

: 00:32:11

That's where the volatility's coming from.

683

: 00:32:13

Sugar really is.

684

: 00:32:14

It.

685

: 00:32:15

It's really cool because all commodities,

and this is why I got into it, based

686

: 00:32:20

on their own supply and demand, The

stock market going up or down is

687

: 00:32:25

way less significant to commodities

than their own supply and demand.

688

: 00:32:28

So that was just a little

synopsis with sugar.

689

: 00:32:31

Is there enough or not?

690

: 00:32:32

Is there a deficit or not?

691

: 00:32:34

In the global sugar supply, sugar will

be going up or down based on that.

692

: 00:32:38

But then layer in energy prices and sugar

gets diverted, sugar cane gets diverted

693

: 00:32:43

to producing ethanol versus sugar itself.

694

: 00:32:46

Now sugar's gonna go up again because

there's gonna be less sugar on the market.

695

: 00:32:50

They're gonna be using more cane for

ethanol and there'll be less sugar on

696

: 00:32:53

the market because they made ethanol

instead of sugar for process sugar.

697

: 00:32:57

commodities are really

cool and they're simple.

698

: 00:32:59

There's, for a guy like me,

I can't do stock analysis

699

: 00:33:02

too hard, too many variables.

700

: 00:33:04

So commodities, supply,

demand, is there enough or not?

701

: 00:33:06

I get it.

702

: 00:33:07

Yeah.

703

: 00:33:07

Ryan: I love it Sal.

704

: 00:33:08

I love the passion you have for grains.

705

: 00:33:10

You can hear it, see it.

706

: 00:33:12

It's a lot of fun.

707

: 00:33:13

A lot of fun.

708

: 00:33:14

Listening to you talk about

grains and just all the insight

709

: 00:33:18

that you have regarding it.

710

: 00:33:20

I dunno, some people

might think equities are.

711

: 00:33:23

Easier than grains.

712

: 00:33:25

But that's why there's ETFs

too, to make it easier.

713

: 00:33:28

So that leads me to my last question

here, Sal, is close it all up.

714

: 00:33:34

How can financial advisors and

investors gain exposure to grains?

715

: 00:33:39

Like corns, soybeans, wheat,

and their import and how

716

: 00:33:43

should they just consider it?

717

: 00:33:45

Like just to stabilize in the portfolio.

718

: 00:33:48

Just let it do its magic.

719

: 00:33:52

Tie it all up real quickly.

720

: 00:33:54

Sal Gilbertie: Sure, and basically all

of which I just said and more is jelled

721

: 00:33:58

into simple things on our website.

722

: 00:34:00

You can go to two cream.com

723

: 00:34:01

or follow us on two cream ETFs

on x, and we publish things.

724

: 00:34:06

You can sign up for our newsletter

and we'll publish things a week,

725

: 00:34:10

sometimes once every two weeks.

726

: 00:34:12

We don't blast your inbox.

727

: 00:34:14

We don't.

728

: 00:34:15

Call you up and bother you.

729

: 00:34:16

There's no commitment to

sign up for our mailing list.

730

: 00:34:19

And people could follow our

substack, I was just told.

731

: 00:34:21

We have tens of thousands of people

following our substack and we'll

732

: 00:34:24

publish things about the grains, but

you can go to our website or call us

733

: 00:34:29

and you can see where grains fit in a p.

734

: 00:34:32

O Okay.

735

: 00:34:33

And it, it will have all the studies.

736

: 00:34:34

It will show you what, you know when

grains have zigged, when the stock

737

: 00:34:38

market zags as our head analyst says.

738

: 00:34:41

And so it.

739

: 00:34:43

The resources are there@twocream.com

740

: 00:34:45

and at two cream ETFs and on our

substack and or just call us.

741

: 00:34:49

If you have any questions, call us.

742

: 00:34:50

But I think an advisor should look

at, do I want some stabilization?

743

: 00:34:54

Where's the price of grains

Now, some people just buy, they

744

: 00:34:57

don't care where the price is.

745

: 00:34:58

They're just an asset allocator,

and they just want that.

746

: 00:35:00

I'm not one of those guys.

747

: 00:35:01

I'm more a strategic allocator where

I'd much rather buy grains when

748

: 00:35:05

they're closer to their cost of

production than when they're not.

749

: 00:35:08

They're gonna diversify

your portfolio either way.

750

: 00:35:10

Okay, but can you get diversification

in maybe some positive alpha?

751

: 00:35:14

I'd rather buy closer to cost of

production, but that's just me.

752

: 00:35:17

Okay.

753

: 00:35:17

So everybody's different.

754

: 00:35:19

at greens, do some research.

755

: 00:35:20

We're happy to help.

756

: 00:35:21

There's no commitment.

757

: 00:35:23

We won't try to sell you anything.

758

: 00:35:24

People can find our ETFs and

everything on our website.

759

: 00:35:28

Easy.

760

: 00:35:28

Ryan: Awesome Sal.

761

: 00:35:29

And I know a lot of people may

disagree with this, but I do a

762

: 00:35:33

little bit of research before

jumping on these interviews.

763

: 00:35:37

And you guys do have a bunch of

great resources on your website.

764

: 00:35:41

I cannot recommend it enough.

765

: 00:35:43

A lot of great stuff there for.

766

: 00:35:45

Basic stuff to more, complex stuff.

767

: 00:35:47

A lot of great thought

leadership, so thank you.

768

: 00:35:52

Sal Gilbertie: Appreciate it,

769

: 00:35:53

Ryan: And thank you so much,

Sal, for coming on the show

770

: 00:35:56

again, you did not disappoint.

771

: 00:35:58

Just like that first conversation.

772

: 00:36:00

Lot of fun, great insights.

773

: 00:36:02

Thank you for coming on.

774

: 00:36:04

It's been an honor and thank you

everyone for listening to this episode

775

: 00:36:08

of zephyr's Adjusted for Risk Podcast.

776

: 00:36:10

You can watch all of our other

episodes on the Zephyr YouTube

777

: 00:36:13

channel as well as Spotify.

778

: 00:36:16

And all the other locations

that you catch your podcasts on.

779

: 00:36:20

Thank you very much and have

a great rest of your week.